Avalanche forecast

Skyline

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

In general, the avalanche danger is generally LOW over the majority of the terrain along the Skyline. A MODERATE danger still exists along the higher northwest, north and northeast facing very steep slopes. It seems unlikely at this point but a person still may trigger an avalanche that breaks into old snow near the ground.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    My biggest concern remains old sugary snow near the ground. This stuff will often strike long after we think conditions are solid. Let's look at the good and bad with this.

    The Good:

    • Loose sugar snow near the ground is limited to the higher elevation more northerly facing slopes.
    • There have been very few recent avalanches breaking into old loose sugary snow near the ground.
    • The most recent avalanches that did break into old snow were fairly "pockety" in nature. They were not taking out an entire slope but rather just a portion of it.
    • I have not experienced any "collapsing" or "whoomping" of the snowpack since just after Thanksgiving. This indicates the snowpack is stubborn to break into sugar snow near the ground.
    • In general, all of the snow since Thanksgiving has consolidated into a very strong layer of snow. It seems hard to break through this layer to get the sugar snow to fail near the ground.

    The Bad:

    • I can still find slopes that hold VERY loose sugary snow near the ground. Lots looser than I feel comfortable with getting onto those slopes despite all of the positive things I've seen. Tests in these areas show failure although they are stubborn to fail.

    So, the way I see it is that it is fairly unlikely to trigger a dangerous avalanche that breaks into this loose sugary snow near the ground given that it is mainly only found in the higher northwest through northeast facing slopes AND there is a stout and strong layer of snow that overlies it. However, I want to see that loose sugary snow gain some more strength before I totally trust it. What I'd like to see is a nice storm roll through and add a couple of feet of snow to the snowpack. If we didn't see any significant avalanches during a storm like that, I'd feel good about laying the old sugar snow to bed.

Snow and Weather

Yet another couple of inches fell on Thursday and overnight. This brings snow totals since last Friday, Dec 21st up to 8 to 12 inches. The snow has just been trickling in slowly but riding conditions have improved greatly, especially out of the wind affected areas. The slow addition of snow along without really strong wind has kept the avalanche danger from increasing dramatically as well.

Check out THIS BACKCOUNTRY OBSERVATION from Darce and Steve who found some minor weakness within the snowpack but overall found it pretty stable.

Additional Info

SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS

CAMERAS & WEATHER STATIONS

INSTAGRAM: SKYLINE_AVALANCHE

FACEBOOK: SKYLINE AVALANCHE

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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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