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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2016–Jan 30th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

The snowpack is going through a change right now. It will take some time for it to adjust to the new snow load. Any additional load will quickly  increase the Danger levels. Keep wind transport in mind as a loading source.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Tonight: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Low -9 at 2500m. West winds 15-35km/hr.Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine high of -8. West winds 20-40km/hr

Avalanche Summary

Some storm slabs have pulled out of alpine features. So far these are concentrated to the northern portion of the region. These maxed out at sz2 and were on S & W aspects.

Snowpack Summary

There is now a light, 1cm thick melt/freeze crust at valley bottom. Beneath this is a mess of facets that provides little to no support. Difficult trail breaking in many areas. Currently there is 5-10cm of new snow sitting on top of the crust. Near treeline there is a distinct slab layer that ranges in stiffness. This slab layer is sitting on the Jan 6th facet layer, which provides almost no support. For the first time this year, some whumphing was noted. At upper treeline these slabs become more prominent as do the weak spots around trees and rocks. Thin areas are becoming more problematic. The alpine is a similar situation with a variety of new and old wind slabs. The top storm slabs are 10-20cm thick. The alpine snowpack has a hollow nature to it that does not inspire confidence at the moment. It feels as though we're on the verge of overloading the Jan 6th layer.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.