Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Feb 27 – 28, 2017Alberta Parks
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Despite the MODERATE hazard rating, forecasters are being very conservative due to the snowpack structure. While it may be only "possible" to trigger, any avalanche will likely step down to the weak basal layers and be very large and destructive.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3
    Recent winds have created isolated thin wind slabs in lee and cross loaded areas at Treeline and above.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–3
    The buried hard slab is the concern here. Probing with a ski pole is the best way to monitor its location. Expect wide propagations if it does get triggered.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–4
    This layer will be with us for the year and should be put into every slope decision. The current snowpack structure is very concerning, with the possibility of very large avalanches if a trigger point is found.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Tuesday will be cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures are only expected to reach a high of -17 °C, which along with moderate westerly winds will contribute to significant wind chill values. Wednesday will remain cool with some light flurries.

Avalanche Summary

Two size 2.0 naturally triggered slabs occurred on Little Tent Ridge in the last 24 to 48hrs. These were both size 2.0 avalanches initiating near 2400m on a steep East aspect. Depths ranged from 40 to 60cm, with up to 80m wide propagations and ran for approximately 500m.

Snowpack Summary

1cm of new snow overnight. Fresh thin wind slabs have formed at Treeline and above. A test profile in the Ten Bowl area today revealed a 165cm deep snowpit with the entire bottom 100cm consisting of very weak facets and depth hoar. Moderate compression test results were found down 25 to 30cm. Moderate to hard test results occurred down 60 to 70cm within the facets, indicating the possibility for an avalanche to step down to the weak basal layers. The current snowpack structure is very concerning, and despite the recent lack of natural avalanches human triggering of a very large avalanche is possible.

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