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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 16th, 2016–Dec 17th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

There may still be small, isolated pockets of windslab at treeline. As you approach wind effected areas anticipate a change in the feel of the snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Another day similar to today. Mostly clear skies with cold temps. Overnight we'll see about -25 as a low. The forecast says we'll get -19 as a high but the pattern suggests it will be colder. Alpine winds will be increasing and be around 40km/hr from the west. Needless to say, we will not get any snow tomorrow.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose dry avalanches were noted in extreme alpine terrain. On average they were sz 1 and did not run very far.

Snowpack Summary

Today's adventure was to Murray Moraines. This area holds cold air and tends to be a known area for a weak snowpack. Below treeline, the story is the same as always- get out of there ASAP! Treeline is where we start to see a significant change in the snowpack depth and quality. The majority of areas at treeline have a consistently thick layer of facets above the crust. The older windslabs that were everywhere earlier in the month have rotted out and become less of a problem. The exception is in areas that had seen severe windloading. Any area that had a hard slab prior ro the cold snap, tends to still have the slab intact. That hard slab appears to have acted like a barrier and increased the amount of facetting below. We encountered some VERY hollow sections today. Here's the word: variable! Every ski turn brought a different character. The alpine is similar, but expect the Nov 12 crust to fade away at about 2400m. It is likely present as a weak facet layer, but at this time the whole snowpack is weak so its hard to distinguish where exactly it is.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.