Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Wednesday looks to be the last day of rather vanilla weather before a significant change Thursday. The pattern is incredibly dynamic as we move towards the weekend, this is a great time to check out our Mountain Weather Forecast (link below) if you are curious. Suffice to say that Wednesday does not offer much change, but then significant rain/snow and plenty of wind is in store at least through Friday.WEDNESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning at 500 m rising to 1500 m, trace of precipitation during the day, 1 to 3 mm of precipitation expected Wednesday night. THURSDAY: Scattered cloud cover initially, building to overcast in the afternoon, freezing level beginning around 1500 m rising to 1800 m, strong south/southeast wind, 2 to 13 mm of precipitation possible.FRIDAY: Scattered cloud cover initially, increasing cloud cover in the afternoon, freezing level beginning at 500 m rising to 1000 m, a few mm of precipitation possible.

No new avalanche observations to report from Monday.On Sunday another skier triggered avalanche was reported from a north/northeast facing feature between 1900 and 2000 m. The size 2 avalanche failed on the March 8th surface hoar with a crown depth of 20 cm. Small loose wet avalanches were also triggered by direct solar input in steep rocky terrain.On Saturday two size 1.5 skier triggered avalanches were reported from steep northeast facing terrain at 2200 m. The slabs were up to 20 cm in depth likely failing on the recently active surface hoar.We received a great MIN report on Saturday that details a size 3 skier triggered avalanche on the northwest face of Matier that likely occurred in the last few days. More details here.

5 to 10 cm of new snow fell March 14th. In most areas the new snow buried a breakable crust formed by days of warm temperatures and sunshine. In the north of the region, polar aspects (those that face north and east) are harboring cold snow and a tricky buried weak layer down 20 to 40 cm below the surface. The layer is widespread in the alpine and at treeline, but it is not everywhere. The layer is composed of surface hoar on polar aspects and a sun crust on solar aspects. This layer continues to produce human triggered avalanches on polar aspects on the Duffey and has not been reported in the south of the region.In the north of the region a weak layer buried mid-February is about 40 to 50 cm below the surface and has been reactive in snowpack tests. The layer is composed of sugary facets, a sun crust on solar aspects, and surface hoar that is present at and below treeline. The snowpack is well settled in the south of the region around the Coquihalla and in Manning Park.Variable winds in the past month have created cornices on many alpine ridgelines. They become touchier as daily temperatures rise and with the strong late winter sun on clear days.