The best and safest snow conditions are near sheltered tree line elevations. Expect any appearance from the late March sun to quickly destabilize wind slabs and loose snow at the surface.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday
Weather Forecast
Cloudy with sunny breaks on Sunday before light snow fall on Monday-Tuesday. SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy, sunny breaks possible with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow, increasing overnight. Moderate southwest winds 20-35 Km/hr. Freezing level to 1200 metres with alpine high temperatures around -4.MONDAY: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing level to 1400 metres with alpine high temperatures of -3.TUESDAY: Snow (5-15cm). Moderate to strong west winds, Freezing level 1500 metres with alpine high temperatures around -1.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, a size 1.5 natural cornice fall was reported on a north west ridge line near 2400m, pulling out a small soft slab below.On Friday we received widespread reports of several size 1-2 wind slab and storm slab releases. These were skier triggered, ski cut, and explosives triggered. They occurred on primarily north/east aspects at treeline and above.Looking forward, newly formed wind slabs are likely to remain reactive to human triggering over the near term. Watch for intervals of solar exposure to destabilize slabs as well as promote loose wet avalanche conditions on steeper, sun-exposed slopes.
Snowpack Summary
Convective snowfall coupled with strong to extreme southerly winds brought a wind-affected 15-25 cm of new snow since Thursday night. The new snow has buried a couple of recent layers of storm snow that are separated by temperature and sun crusts at lower elevations and on south aspects. Surface hoar layers have been reported between these storm snow layers on shaded aspects at higher elevations and can likely now be found at approximately 30 and 50 cm below the surface. Some potential exists for shallower slab avalanches to 'step down' to these deeper layers.New snow amounts taper with elevation and below 1900 m, reduced accumulations have buried a supportive crust on all aspects. Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with a surface avalanche stepping down, large cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.