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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2024–Feb 27th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Human triggering remains likely, maintain conservative terrain choices.

The best conditions can be found in sheltered terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday avalanche control produced numerous avalanches up to size 3.5, showing wide propagations likely failing on the Feb 3rd crust. A natural avalanche cycle earlier in the storm saw several large avalanches running full path from the steep terrain of Mt. Tupper and Mt. MacDonald.

Snowpack Summary

50-60cm of new snow has given a good refresh to surface conditions, southerly winds during the storm formed deeper deposits on leeward features. Below this thin sun crusts were buried on solar slopes and down 70-100cm is the robust Feb 3rd crust (which is widespread below 2500m).

The mid to lower snowpack is well settled, except in isolated areas of the alpine where an unusually thin & faceted snowpack exists.

Weather Summary

On Tuesday we will see a drying trend before the next storm arrives early on Wednesday bringing another round of heavy snowfall and strong winds.

Tues: Sun & cloud with isolated flurries - trace of new snow, light SW winds, low -23°C, freezing level (FZL) at valley bottom.

Wed: Stormy, snow - 30cm, strong SW winds, low -14°C, FZL 1100m.

Thurs: Cloudy with flurries up to 10cm, strong W winds, low -12°C, FZL 700m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.