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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2024–Mar 17th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing overnight well in to the alpine.

Widespread large natural avalanches are expected.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity picked up Friday afternoon, with ongoing warming. We observed several large loose and wet slab avalanches from solar aspects. There was a notable size 3 persistent slab avalanche beside the Grizzly couloir.

Expect natural avalanches to increase in size and frequency with continued warming.

Natural avalanches on the persistent weak layer (over 1m deep) are expected to become widespread as the warmth penetrates deeper into the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Expect a very thin crust to form overnight that will break down quickly by mid morning from above zero temps and intense sun. When that happens the upper snowpack will turn to slop.

A previous suncrust, down 20-40cm, may make a sliding layer for wet slabs.

80-140cm of settled snow sits above a sugary facet layer. These facets are poorly bonded to the widespread, firm crust from Feb 3rd. This is a significant persistent weak layer and will be a concern for the foreseeable future.

Weather Summary

Temperatures continue to rise, with a mass of warm air driving freezing levels up above 3000m (mountain top) over the next couple days.

Tonight: Alpine low 6°C, with a temperature inversion. Light SE ridgetop winds. Freezing level (FZL): 700m, and a weak temp inversion.

Sun: Cloudy w/ sunny periods. Alpine high 6°C, (FZL) 3200m. Light SW winds.

Mon: Mainly cloudy. Low -1°C, High 3°C. FZL 2000m. Light SW winds.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain as temperatures increase.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid traveling in runout zones. Avalanches have the potential to run to the valley floor.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.