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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 26th, 2020–Dec 27th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Watch for wind loading in atypical terrain features due to recent shifting wind. Expect cornices and storm slabs to remain reactive to human triggers especially if the sun comes out Sunday.

Confidence

Moderate - Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: 5 cm new snow, strong southwest wind, freezing level 700 m.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Monday: Sunny, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Tuesday: Increasing cloud, wind increasing to moderate southwest, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs and cornices were reported to be touchy during the storm on Saturday, skier end explosive control work producing storm slab avalanches size 1-2. Earlier this week, numerous wind slab avalanches were reported, triggered naturally and by riders at treeline and alpine elevations. Check out these MINs for a few examples: here, here and here.

A few large avalanches have been observed over the past week, running on buried weak layers (described in snowpack summary). Most occurred on north to east aspects in the alpine. A size 2.5 reported Thursday from a coastal glaciated area west of the Squamish river. It was on a southeast aspect, 100 m wide with crown depth 40-80 cm deep.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of recent snow has been redistributed by strong easterly winds, depositing deep pockets of storm slab into lee terrain features.

Two potential concerning weak layers may be present in the snowpack: 

  • The shallower layer, around 60 to 100 cm deep, includes feathery surface hoar crystals. This layer may be found in sheltered terrain features at treeline and lower alpine elevations but has been reported as spotty across the region. 
  • The more widespread weak layer includes sugary faceted grains that overlies a hard melt-freeze crust. This layer ranges in depth from 10 cm to 120 cm due to the wind scouring and loading the snow in different terrain features over the past two weeks. The layer has been reported as being widespread up to around 2000 to 2200 m. 

To date we have mostly seen sporadic avalanche activity on these layers, but they remain possible to trigger where they exist in the mountains.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Brief periods of sun could quickly initiate natural avalanche activity.
  • Conditions may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.