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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2021–Jan 28th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

Human triggered avalanches remain likely due to a prominent weak layer that was recently buried. Continue to choose conservative terrain, this problem will probably stick around for a while.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, up to 5 cm / moderate southeast wind / alpine low temperature near -3 

THURSDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, up to 5 cm / moderate southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -2 

FRIDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods / light southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -1 

SATURDAY - Snow, 10 cm / strong south wind / alpine high temperature near -2

Avalanche Summary

Human triggered avalanches are expected to be likely in many areas.

North Shore Rescue responded to a serious, but non-fatal avalanche incident on Tuesday evening in the backcountry near Cypress Mountain Resort. One person was involved and was partially buried. The avalanche was a size 2 storm slab on a west aspect at approximately 1100 m. 

There were a few size 1 storm slab avalanches reported in the Hollyburn area on Tuesday. These were both natural and human triggered. Though small in size, this is likely due to the size of the terrain features. They are a good reminder of the potential for avalanches on the recently buried weak layer. A recent MIN report about one of these avalanches can be viewed here.

Numerous human and explosives triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2 were reported on Monday, including a few that were triggered remotely (from a distance). There were also reports of numerous size 1 dry loose avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of recent fresh snow sits on a crust that also has weak facets and surface hoar on top of it in many areas. This weak layer will probably take more time to gain strength than what is considered typical for the South Coast region. Flurries and moderate wind on Thursday may continue to form fresh and reactive storm slabs.  

Click here to watch North Shore Rescue's January 22 snowpack discussion, which includes a great explanation of how the recently buried weak layer was formed.

Terrain and Travel

  • Conservative terrain selection is critical, choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
  • Keep your guard up at lower elevations. Storms slabs have been reactive at all elevations.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.