Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2026–Jan 16th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis, Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, North 40, Spray - KLakes.

High uncertainty regarding the height of freezing levels for Wednesday. Avalanche danger may be higher if there is a minimal freeze overnight. If the sun comes out, expect stability to decrease quickly on solar aspects. Skiing is challenging up to 2300m in moist snow.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose wet avalanches up to sz 1 were observed up to treeline elevations on tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

The 15cm that fell over the past few days is settling rapidly with the warm temperatures. Moist snow was found up to 2300m and above this elevation, winds were creating windslabs 20-30cm thick in open areas and on lee features. Below 2100m a layer of surface hoar is down 50cm that may be a concern in isolated steep below treeline areas.

Overall the snowpack is settling with the warm temps which will benefit us in the long term. For now though, the quality of the freeze overnight and the freezing level on Wednesday will play a big influence on stability. Keep this in mind as you travel.

Weather Summary

Freezing levels are the big question for Wednesday with some models calling for 3000m and some calling for 1900m. Lots of uncertainty with these levels.

No new snow is forecast for the next few days and winds are forecast to continue to be moderate to strong out of the SW.

The big thing to pay attention to is temperatures.

https://hpfx.collab.science.gc.ca/~fsg006/productviewer/ab/table/AB_Rockies_Forecast.html

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
Avoid steep terrain, including convex rolls, or areas with a thin, rocky, or variable snowpack.
Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.