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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 21st, 2026–Feb 22nd, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

North Island, South Island.

Snow continues to build up on a layer of surface hoar, creating TOUCHY avalanche conditions.

If you experience rain on the new snow, expect the danger to rapidly jump to HIGH.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported from this area yet, but we anticipate a significant natural cycle will occur as the storm snow accumulates.

If you are heading into the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations with the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

New snow falls on a widespread layer of surface hoar ranging from 30 mm below treeline to 5 mm in the alpine.

A crust from early February is down 20 to 50 cm and in most areas appears to be well bonded.

The remainder of the snowpack is well settled. The snowpack depth at treeline ranges from 85 to 130 cm, and there is still very little snow below treeline.

While new snow has improved riding conditions, access is still a challenge, with new snow on bare rock/ground at low elevations.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night
Cloudy. 20 to 30 cm of snow. 60 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

Sunday
Cloudy. 15 to 20 mm of precipitation. 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Monday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 30 mm of precipitation. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
  • Think carefully about your exit plan from the backcountry because avalanche danger is expected to increase throughout the day.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.