Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 9th, 2023–Mar 10th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Island.

The sun at this time of year can pack a punch so watch for signs of warming in recent snow on steep south aspects. Around Mt Cain, avalanches may remain triggerable on a recently buried crust.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations in the past 2 days.

On Tuesday our field team observed several size 1-2 wind slab avalanches at Mt Cain which they estimated to be around 1-2 days old. Some of them failed down to a buried crust.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of recent snow has been redistributed at upper elevations. At lower elevations, it continues to settle amid mild temperatures. A sun crust or moist snow may exist on steep solar aspects.

A thick, widespread crust formed in mid February now sits 40-80 cm deep. Near Mt Cain, the crust is glassy with faceted crystals sitting on top of it, which makes for a poor bond to the overlying slab of snow. For more details, check out this reel from our field team last week. Elsewhere the crust seems to be bonding well. You can check the bond in your local area by performing a simple hand shear test on an isolated block.

The mid and lower snowpack is well consolidated, containing a series of well-bonded crusts.

Weather Summary

Thursday night

Clear. Wind easing to light northeast. Alpine low -5 ˚C.

Friday

Mostly sunny. Light westerly wind. Alpine high of 0 ˚C.

Saturday

Snowfall starting, around 5 cm. Moderate southwesterly wind. Alpine high -1 ˚C.

Sunday

15-30 cm of new snow. Strong southwesterly wind. Alpine high -1 ˚C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.