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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2026–Feb 15th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Flathead, Lizard.

Don't underestimate what the February sun can do to fresh snow. Storm slabs will likely be reactive on Sunday.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about how the timing or intensity of solar radiation will affect the snowpack.
  • We are uncertain about how quickly persistent slabs are gaining strength.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread storm slab avalanche activity was observed on Saturday. Slabs were size 1.5 to 2, triggered naturally and artificially.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 40 cm of new snow sits over a variety of surfaces including wind affected snow, surface hoar in sheltered areas and crust on solar aspects and low elevations.

Below this, depending on aspect and elevation, the upper snowpack may contain two more layers of crust, facets and/or surface hoar formed in late January and early February. We have uncertainty around the reactivity of these layers.

The mid and lower snowpack remain well settled, with no significant concerns at this time.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

Sunday
Mix of sun and clouds. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

Monday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 15 to 25 cm of snow. 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Avoid sun-exposed slopes, especially if the snow surface is moist or wet.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.