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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2022–Feb 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Watch for wind slabs in steep alpine terrain. Avalanches are less likely where thick crusts exist near the surface.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies, strong wind from the west, treeline temperatures drop to -12 C.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate to strong wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -5 C with freezing level reaching 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries bringing a trace amounts of snow, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -3 C with freezing level around 1800 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of snow, strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

A few small dry loose avalanches were reported on Tuesday and some small wind slab avalanches likely occurred in the alpine on Wednesday. The last persistent slab in this region was reported during the warm sunny weather on Saturday in the Steeples. This avalanche had wide propagation on a south facing aspect at 2300 m and ran for 2 km. It is believed to have occurred on the late January persistent weak layer, with an approximate depth of 50 cm.  

Snowpack Summary

5-15 cm of fresh snow overlies a variety of surfaces. Higher elevations are heavily wind effected with a melt freeze crust on solar aspects. Lower elevations hold a widespread thick melt freeze on all aspects. The late January interface is buried 10-30 cm deep. It consists of a surface hoar layer found mainly in the north of the region in sheltered terrain. The snowpack below is well consolidated, with the early-December crust/facet persistent weak layer buried 100-200 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant. We expect this layer to become active later this season, check out the forecaster blog for more information.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.