Avalanche forecast

Northwest Coastal

Mar 3 – 4, 2022Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Sunny days and high freezing levels are in our future. This is a good time to be thinking about overhead exposure. The snowpack doesn't like heat so consider travelling during the cooler parts of the day and give cornices a wide berth. 

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Cornices can be unpredictable so whether you are travelling above or below them, they should be given ample distance and treated with respect. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As freezing levels rise over the weekend, storm slabs may become more reactive. Assess large, connected features closely and have a plan B if things feel too warm. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Almost Certain
    Size
    1–1.5

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

    

The sun will come out and freezing levels will rise through the weekend. 

Thursday night: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light winds from the south. -7°C in the alpine.

Friday: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light winds from the south. A high of 0°C and a low of -7°C in the alpine. Freezing levels 1500m. 

Saturday: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light variable winds. A high of +2°C and a low of -7°C in the alpine. Freezing levels will rise to 1700m.

Sunday: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light variable winds. A high of +3°C and a low of -4°C in the alpine. Freezing levels are forecast to rise to 2200m or higher. 

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche professionals in the region continued to report isolated slab avalanche activity to size 2 on Wednesday. These isolated avalanches were triggered by ski cuts and explosives. 

This MIN describes loose wet avalanches occurring at treeline elevations west of Shames. 

Snowpack Summary

20-40cm of Storm snow is settling into a slab with warming temperatures. Below 1500m the upper snowpack is wet in most areas and forming a crust with overnight cooling. The thick, mid-February crust is now buried 40-60cms and while we have not observed avalanches on this layer, it continues to draw suspicion.

The lower snowpack is being effectively bridged by the mid-February crust and avalanches are not expected to be triggered below this layer at this time. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Firm cornices can pull back into flat terrain at ridgetop if they fail.

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