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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2022–Mar 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Sunny days and high freezing levels are in our future. This is a good time to be thinking about overhead exposure. The snowpack doesn't like heat so consider travelling during the cooler parts of the day and give cornices a wide berth. 

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

    

The sun will come out and freezing levels will rise through the weekend. 

Thursday night: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light winds from the south. -7°C in the alpine.

Friday: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light winds from the south. A high of 0°C and a low of -7°C in the alpine. Freezing levels 1500m. 

Saturday: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light variable winds. A high of +2°C and a low of -7°C in the alpine. Freezing levels will rise to 1700m.

Sunday: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light variable winds. A high of +3°C and a low of -4°C in the alpine. Freezing levels are forecast to rise to 2200m or higher. 

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche professionals in the region continued to report isolated slab avalanche activity to size 2 on Wednesday. These isolated avalanches were triggered by ski cuts and explosives. 

This MIN describes loose wet avalanches occurring at treeline elevations west of Shames. 

Snowpack Summary

20-40cm of Storm snow is settling into a slab with warming temperatures. Below 1500m the upper snowpack is wet in most areas and forming a crust with overnight cooling. The thick, mid-February crust is now buried 40-60cms and while we have not observed avalanches on this layer, it continues to draw suspicion.

The lower snowpack is being effectively bridged by the mid-February crust and avalanches are not expected to be triggered below this layer at this time. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Firm cornices can pull back into flat terrain at ridgetop if they fail.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.