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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2022–Mar 28th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Keep an eye on the snow surface, as it gets moist from warming and solar input the size and likelihood of wet loose avalanches will increase.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: No new snow expected. Possibility of temperature inversion with temps around -1 at 1500 m. Light northerly winds.

Monday: Sunny with no new snow expected. Light west winds and freezing levels rising to 1700 m.

Tuesday: Cloudy with no new snow expected. Moderate south winds. Freezing levels rising to 1800 m.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with light flurries in the morning bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday a few natural size one wet loose avalanches were observed in steep terrain. We suspect this type of avalanche activity will increase on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

A supportive crust extends into the alpine on all aspects. This crust will likely become moist as the freezing level rises and the sun comes out. Wind slabs may be found at high elevations on north and east aspects.

A couple of layers of weak crystals in the upper snowpack appear to be bonding according to recent snowpack tests. Additionally, we suspect that the surface crust will help bridge these layers, further decreasing their likelihood of triggering.

Terrain and Travel

  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.