Avalanche forecast

South Coast Inland

Feb 19 – 20, 2022Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Use caution at all elevations. The southern part of the region could be more hazardous due to the higher forecasted snowfall amounts.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The late-January weak layer is down 20-70 cm and was most reactive between 1700 and 2000 m in the north of the region. It is now likely dormant in most areas, especially where there is a supportive surface crust. However, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still reactive and capable of producing large avalanches if triggered. We have now entered a low probability, high consequence scenario with this layer. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Almost Certain
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    New storm and wind slabs will form throughout the day on Saturday. These slabs could be touchy due to the surfaces they will form on. The largest slabs will likely be found in the south of the region where forecasted precipitation amounts are greatest. Use extra caution near ridge crests where wind loading is likely.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Low of -4 at 1500m. Light snowfall bringing trace amounts in the north and up to 5cm in the south. Moderate southwest winds. 

Saturday: stormy weather bringing up to 15cm in the north and up to 30cm in the south throughout the day. Moderate southwest winds .High of -2 at 1500m.

Sunday: a mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts in the north and up to 5cm in the south. High of -2 at 1500m. Light winds.

Monday: a mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow and light northerly winds. High of -7 at 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday one size one skier triggered avalanche was reported in the north part of the region. It was on a cross loaded feature at treeline.

Over the past couple days wet loose avalanches were observed up to size 1.5 on solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

New snow accompanied by southwest winds will form new storm and wind slabs throughout the day on Saturday.

Up to 20cm sits above the mid Febuary crust. The melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation polar aspects in the north of the region. Facets and surface hoar can be found above the crust in the north of the region. 

The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 20-70 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m in the north of the region. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still very reactive in a few places in the north of the region and would still be capable of producing large avalanches if triggered.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.

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