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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2022–Feb 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Use caution at all elevations. The southern part of the region could be more hazardous due to the higher forecasted snowfall amounts.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Low of -4 at 1500m. Light snowfall bringing trace amounts in the north and up to 5cm in the south. Moderate southwest winds. 

Saturday: stormy weather bringing up to 15cm in the north and up to 30cm in the south throughout the day. Moderate southwest winds .High of -2 at 1500m.

Sunday: a mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts in the north and up to 5cm in the south. High of -2 at 1500m. Light winds.

Monday: a mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow and light northerly winds. High of -7 at 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday one size one skier triggered avalanche was reported in the north part of the region. It was on a cross loaded feature at treeline.

Over the past couple days wet loose avalanches were observed up to size 1.5 on solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

New snow accompanied by southwest winds will form new storm and wind slabs throughout the day on Saturday.

Up to 20cm sits above the mid Febuary crust. The melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation polar aspects in the north of the region. Facets and surface hoar can be found above the crust in the north of the region. 

The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 20-70 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m in the north of the region. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still very reactive in a few places in the north of the region and would still be capable of producing large avalanches if triggered.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.