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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2023–Feb 7th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast, North Shore, Sasquatch, Sky Pilot, Tetrahedron.

Major storm system brings major precipitation and increased avalanche hazard.

Expect storm slabs that will be made even more reactive with strong winds and be cautious of loose wet avalanches at lower elevations.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A large storm slab avalanche was reported in the Tetrahedron yesterday. We anticipate more of these types of avalanches with incoming weather. Widespread natural storm slabs and loose wet avalanche activity during periods of heavy snowfall/rain Monday and Tuesday will ramp up avalanche activity. There is potential for deep storm slabs to slide on a buried crust, producing large and destructive avalanches.

Please continue to post your reports and photos to the Mountain Information Network, the information is very helpful to forecasters.

Snowpack Summary

By Tuesday morning there could be 60 to 70 cm of new snow at elevations of about 1000 m. At upper elevations, the new snow adds to 40 cm of recent snow sitting over a hard crust. This will be accompanied by strong winds and warm temperatures so expect wind slabs in exposed areas. Snowpack tests have shown a poor bond between the crust and overlying snow. The middle and lower snowpack is strong and bonded.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy, 40 to 50 cm accumulation with a mix of snow and rain below 1500 m easing throughout, wind south southwest 50 km/h, treeline temperatures -1 C.

Tuesday

Cloudy, 25 cm accumulation with a mix of rain below 1400 m, wind southwest 40 to 50 km/h, treeline temperatures -1 C.

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy, trace accumulation, wind northwest 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperatures -5 C.

Thursday

Cloudy, 5 to 8 cm accumulation at higher elevations, wind southeast 20 km/h gusting to 50, treeline temperatures at -5 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Choose low-angled, sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.