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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2023–Feb 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Esplanade, Jordan, North Selkirk, Shuswap, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, North Okanagan, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

As a new storm travels south snow will start to accumulate throughout the day adding to the snow available for transport. Be aware of changing conditions throughout the day, and investigate the bond of old wind slabs in direct lees.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Several natural very large avalanches were reported in the North of the region that failed down to the deep persistent weak layer found near the base of the snowpack.

Reports of natural and cornice-triggered wind slabs continue to trickle in, reminding us that human triggering of these layers remains possible.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack consists of recent snow that has been redistributed into wind slabs directly lee of ridges at treeline and alpine elevations. Various ages of wind slabs and storm snow is generally settling and bonding.

The mid-pack is generally well consolidated with a few operations reporting continued snowpack results on a spotty surface hoar layer down roughly 80 cm. Reports of large avalanches involving various layers of surface hoar/crusts and facets within the mid-pack depth are sporadic but are a reminder of the complicated snowpack across this region.

In the lower snowpack, a layer of large and weak facets from November near the base of the snowpack remains on the radar and continues to be discussed in professional snowpack summaries.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Increasing cloud with isolated flurries, trace accumulations, 10 to 15 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures around -6 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with flurries, 5 to 10 cm accumulation, 10 to 15 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures -7 °C.

Friday

Mainly cloudy, flurries 5 to 10 cm of new snow, 20 to 30 km/h winds, treeline temperatures -8 °C.

Saturday

Mainly cloudy, flurries with 5 to 10 cm accumulation, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -7 °C

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.