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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2023–Jan 8th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Human-triggered deep slab avalanches remain possible. Maintain a disciplined approach and avoid high-consequence terrain.

Read more about this winter's widespread persistent weak layers in our recent Forecasters Blog

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region. However, the November weak layer remains active in snowpack testing, producing spooky results.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

The upper 30 to 50 cm of generally low-density snow is settling with mild temperatures. This sits over a generally weak and faceted mid and lower snowpack. A layer buried in November consisting of facets, surface hoar, and/or a crust is near the base of the snowpack.

Treeline snow depths are roughly 140 to 160 cm.

Weather Summary

Saturday night

Mostly cloudy, with isolated flurries and trace amounts of snow. Light southerly winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, with isolated flurries and trace amounts of snow. Light southerly winds. Treeline temperatures 0 to -5 C. Freezing levels up to 1000 m in the west of the region.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with flurries, and trace amounts of snow. Light to moderate southerly winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C. Freezing levels up to 1000 m in the west of the region.

Tuesday

Mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation. Light southerly winds. Treeline temperatures -5 to -10 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.