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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2025–Feb 16th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

The new snow will not bond well to the weak, sugary old snow. Expect to see rider triggered sluffing in steep terrain and natural avalanches in extreme terrain.

Keep the Jan 30th persistent weak layer in the back of your mind, especially on solar slopes where facets sit on a buried suncrust.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We have observed small (up to size 1) dry loose natural and rider triggered avalanches in steep unsupported terrain this week.

Field teams and MIN reports have observed some whumping and cracking in exposed areas.

Neighbouring operations, particularly to the west, are still reporting rider & remote triggered avalanches on the Jan 30th layer.

Snowpack Summary

New storm snow sits on a facetted upper snowpack. Open areas in the alpine & treeline had extensive wind affect that is now softening due to surface faccetting.

A weak layer of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30th) is 20-50cm down. This layer has been showing signs of reactivity on solar slopes, where facets sit on a suncrust.

The Jan 7th layer is down 50-80 and is decomposed surface hoar or a thin crust on South and West aspects. This layer has been innactive recently.

Weather Summary

Slightly warmer temperatures are on the way with some snow in the forecast Sun/Mon.

Tonight Cloudy with flurries. Alpine low -12°C. Ridge winds Southeast 15 km/hr

Sunday Cloudy & snowing 10cms. Alpine high -7°C. Wind: East 10-20km/hr.

Monday Cloudy with flurries. 5cms new snow. Alpine high -9°C. Light E Wind.

Tuesday A mix of sun & cloud. Alpine high -11°C. Light SW wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Be careful with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.