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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2025–Feb 5th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Elkford West.

Switching winds have developed fresh, sensitive wind slabs on exposed slopes. Avoid areas where snow feels stiff or slabby.

Check out the Forecaster Blog "Keeping a Conservative Mindset"

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, two natural, size 3, storm slab avalanches were observed, likely triggered by overnight winds. These avalanches occurred on exposed northeast alpine slopes.

On Sunday, avalanche control produced several explosive-triggered storm slab avalanches size 1.5 to 2.5, and numerous dry loose avalanches, size 1 to 1.5, on northeast aspects at treeline.

Storm snow will likely remain reactive to skier traffic on Wednesday, where winds redistributed it into slabs.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow totals range from 40 to 70 cm, with deeper deposits in wind-loaded areas. On exposed features, northeast winds have built fresh wind slabs on south and west facing slopes.

The storm snow has bonded poorly to the old snow surfaces, which includes melt-freeze crusts on sun-exposed slopes, large surface hoar or facets in sheltered areas, and wind-affected snow in exposed terrain at ridgelines.

The lower snowpack is strong and bonded.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Cloudy with light flurries, 2 to 4 cm. 20 to 30 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -26 °C.

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy. 15 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -18 °C.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud. 15 to 25 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

Friday

Mainly sunny. 5 to 15 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Pay attention to the wind; once it starts to blow, sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
  • Avoid freshly wind-loaded terrain features.
  • Use small, low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Be aware of the potential for remote triggering and large avalanches due to buried surface hoar.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.