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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 3rd, 2025–Feb 4th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies, Sugarbowl, Kakwa, McGregor.

New wind slabs and lingering buried weaknesses warrant conservative terrain travel.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

The most recent notable avalanche occurred on Saturday near Torpy, where riders observed and triggered storm slab avalanches 40 to 50 cm deep, around 1250 m in elevation. The avalanches released on a weak layer of surface hoar crystals described in the Snowpack Summary. See here for more information. Given the nature of this weak layer, it remains possible that riders could trigger similar avalanches going forward, where it exists.

Snowpack Summary

Strong northeast wind is likely forming wind slabs at higher elevations. In terrain sheltered from the wind, around 50 cm of recent snow likely remains soft. This snow may rest on weak faceted grains and/or surface hoar crystals, or perhaps a hard melt-freeze crust. The surface hoar may be most prevalent around the Torpy area.

A melt-freeze crust from mid-January is buried 60 to 120 cm deep, which may have weak faceted grains above it.

The lower snowpack is consolidated.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Clear skies. 30 to 50 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -25 °C.

Tuesday

Clear skies. 30 to 50 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -22 °C.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -18 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with 1 to 3 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -16 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • It's a good day to make conservative terrain choices.
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Avoid freshly wind-loaded terrain features.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.