Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 12th, 2020–Feb 13th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Avalanche danger is forecast to be moderate on Thursday but if the winds increase overnight or earlier than forecast on thursday, we will begin to move into considerable. Pay attention to winds and influence of solar radiation on south facing slopes. 

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Warm temps (-6C for a daytime high) are forecast to continue into Thursday with clear skies in the morning. Later in the day, a low will begin to move into the region and light snowfall will start. Winds are forecast to increase with the arrival of the front into the strong range out of the SW around mid afternoon. Freezing levels in one forecast around said to be around 2000m while another says closer to valley bottom. Keep an eye on temps on Thursday. 

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry avalanches from steeper terrain but no slab avalanche activity in the past 24hrs. 

Snowpack Summary

An additional 7-10cm of snow fell overnight. The slow trickle of snow is beginning to add up with around 20-25cm of recent snow over the past few days. Winds were forecast to be strong today but instead they were almost non existent. Having said this, there is some variable wind affect in alpine terrain along ridgecrests and in gullied features from earlier this week that skiers should be aware of. In addition to the windslab concern, the basal facets are still on our minds as we travel. Any snowpack test we do fails down at this interface down 1.5-2m. Think about the real possibility of an avalanche stepping down to this layer. If the sun comes out, also watch for cornices to begin to sag...

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.