Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Jan 27 – 28, 2020Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map
Archived · expired 7 years ago

Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map

Highlights

Stormy weather Monday night into Tuesday will bring snow and wind followed by warming temperatures. Expect dangerous avalanche conditions on Tuesday where snow and wind form slabs in the upper snowpack. Watch for wet avalanches on steep slopes at low elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    The most dangerous slopes will be at upper elevations. Use caution where if you find reactive slabs in the recent snow. Use extra caution on unsupported slopes, such as above rocks or cliffs, near typical trigger points, like convexed roll-overs, and around terrain traps. 

    Snow accumulation Monday night into Tuesday will be enough to raise concern for avalanches. The main question will be how well the new snow bonds. Use quick tests and small test slopes to check for any reactive interfaces within the storm snow or at the new/old snow interface. With warming temperatures during the day on Tuesday, anticipate that the new snow could be heavier near the surface or could become more reactive throughout the day.

    Expect avalanches to become bigger and more likely to trigger as you climb higher in elevation. You may encounter some freshly drifted and stiffened snow on upper elevation slopes and wind-exposed ridges. Steer around fresh wind drifts and pillows.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Temperatures will warm throughout the day. Expect small loose wet avalanches developing on steep slopes at low elevations as the day progresses. If precipitation falls as rain, anticipate that these avalanches may become more prevalent and widespread. While these avalanches are generally easy to manage and anticipate, they can be dangerous around terrain traps. Watch for warning signs like fresh wet debris or rollerballs and “pinwheels” forming in the snow. If you see these signs, avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees.

Snowpack Discussion

Update: January 24th 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)

During the afternoon of January 23, 2020 one person was buried and killed by an avalanche that released from the roof of a home north of Blewett Pass near Highway 97. The elevation was approximately 1,700ft above sea level. She was found underneath 4 to 5ft of debris. She was discovered and excavated some time after the accident, where CPR was performed. Additional emergency response arrived within 15 minutes, but they were unable to revive her.

Our deepest condolences go out to the family and friends of the victim.

 

January to Remember

A parade of storms since the New Year began brought relentless precipitation, and impressive snowpack growth throughout the region. Areas along the west slopes of the Cascades have rarely gone more than 24-48hrs without precipitation. In the past three weeks, the Volcanoes and Passes received 20-28in of water equivalent, translating into incredible snowfall totals - Mt. Baker Ski Area reported 240in of new snow since January 1. The majority of NWAC weather station sites are reporting snow depths well over 120% of normal for this time of year. Ongoing precipitation and fluctuating snow levels have maintained elevated avalanche danger throughout the month, with avalanche warnings issued for nearly all forecast zones on 4 separate days (January 6, 7, 12, 23).  

Snow depth imagery for the Northwest Region on January 23, 2020. Many areas in the Cascades and Olympics show well over 100 inches of snow on the ground. Image courtesy of NOHRSC Regional Snow Analysis. 

Location

January 1-23 Precipitation (Water Equivalent)

Hurricane Ridge

14.79”

Mt Baker Ski Area

28.65”

Harts Pass

11.2”

Stevens Pass

20.26”

Leavenworth

4.01”

Snoqualmie Pass

25.43”

Paradise, Mt Rainier

24.13”

Mt Hood Meadows

22.34”

Table 1: Precipitation totals for select weather stations January 1-23, 2020. Huge numbers at Baker, Rainier, Hood, and the Passes and there is still another week left this month.

MLK Weekend and a Pattern of Rain on Dry Snow

After a prolonged cold period with arctic air and lowland snow, MLK weekend brought unseasonably warm temperatures and a rapid thaw. High snow levels and rain caused wet avalanche activity throughout the region January 18-19. A few very large natural avalanches occurred at upper elevations where all precipitation fell as snow. A cooling trend followed, creating a pronounced crust that is now buried in almost all forecast zones. Cold, dry snow January 21-22 was followed by a rapid warm-up and the most significant rain on snow event yet, causing avalanche warnings on January 23 for 5 of our 10 forecast zones.

The crown of a very large avalanche around 10,000ft on the Newton Headwall of Mt Hood which likely occurred during the storm late last week. 01/19/20 Photo: Kevin Kayl

The buried MLK crust is widespread throughout the region and a prominent marker in the snowpack. Crystal Backcountry 01/20/20 Photo Jeremy Allyn

One More Week To Go

January isn’t over yet, and the long term forecast continues to show an active and wet weather pattern for the Northwest. The low-snow, drought-like conditions of the early season seem like a distant memory at this point. We’ve certainly made up for lost time in 2020, and this already impressive month looks to end with a bang.

Regions covered