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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2021–Dec 15th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Cool temps will slowly soften surface slabs.

Be wary of areas where the snow feels dense or stiffer. These slabs may be sitting upon a smooth, hard crust, waiting for a human trigger.

Weather Forecast

A mixed bag over the next few days, with scattered flurries and moments of sunshine.

Tonight: Cloudy, Trace amounts of snow, Alp temp -13*C, light SW winds

Wed: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries, Trace snow, Alp high -12*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, 4cm, Alp high -12*C, light W winds

Snowpack Summary

15cm of fluff Monday night has covered the weekend's fresh slabs, created by extreme S'ly winds Saturday. These slabs were prevalent in exposed, Alpine and Tree-line features, further downslope than normal. The Dec 1 crust is ~15cm thick at 1900m, buried by ~1m and found up to 2300m. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well bonded and strong.

Avalanche Summary

Natural and human triggered avalanche activity has decreased since the weekend.

Reports of denser surface snow below tree-line is indicative of settlement, which can produce a cohesive slab that fails as one unit. Given the Dec 1 crust is most prevalent below tree-line, this hard surface could be the perfect sliding layer for the slab to move on.

Confidence

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.