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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2021–Dec 16th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Shifting wind directions on Thursday may form fresh wind slabs on numerous aspects.

 Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy / Light, northwesterly winds / Low of -5 C / Freezing level 500 m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Moderate, northwesterly winds / High of 0 C / Freezing level 700 m.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness / Light, westerly winds / High of -3 C / Freezing level 500 m.

SATURDAY: Snow/rain; 40-60 mm / Extreme, southwesterly winds / High of 3 C / Freezing level rising to 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in this region.

Snowpack Summary

Shifting wind directions on Thursday may form fresh wind slabs on numerous aspects.

The major layer in the snowpack is a crust down 60-90 cm that was formed in early December. Small facets (sugary snow crystals) have been reported on this crust that have the potential to create a persistent slab problem. No avalanches have been reported on this layer.

Early season hazards such as rocks, stumps, and open creeks remain at lower elevations.

Terrain and Travel

  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
  • Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.