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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2022–Jan 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

There is a special avalanche warning in effect for our area.

Rising freezing levels and solar radiation may trigger another large avalanche cycle this weekend.

Minimize your exposure to overhead avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

A drying trend is developing as a ridge of high pressure moves into the province today. 

Tonight: mainly cloudy, no precip. Wind W-20km/h. Freezing level (fzl) 600m.

Sat: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine High 0 C. Wind W-25 gusting to 50km/h. Fzl 1400m

Sun: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature: High 0 C. Wind W-25 gusting to 60km/h. Fzl 1500m

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of new snow yesterday and warm temps have created fresh storm slabs over 2-4mm surface hoar (SH).

There are 2 PWLs in the mid-pack: SH is 50-80cm down at and below treeline + a layer of facets from Xmas is down ~100cm

The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is dn ~2-2.5m. This layer came alive last storm and will be a lingering concern for a long time

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred in the past 24 hrs with a notable size 4.0 off of Ross Peak that filled up the Elephant's Trunk up Loop Brook

A size 3 deep slab avalanche was triggered by a tree bomb on Abbott Wed

A widespread avalanche cycle occurred Mon. Size 3-4 avalanches occurred naturally and with artillery, some with crowns over 2m deep

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.