Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Dec 31, 2021 – Jan 1, 2022
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Archived · expired 5 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

Building windslabs and irregular reactivity on deep instabilities is dampening our overall confidence in the snowpack, stay attentive to changes in slab consistency; underfoot, and in overhead terrain!

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Variable wind direction over the past week has caused reverse loading in some areas.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanche observations have shown that deep persistent slabs can be initiated by large triggers such as surface avalanches or cornice failures.

Weather Forecast

A little precip. and more reasonable winter temps expected into the weekend before we move back into another cold, high pressure.

Friday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Temp: High -21 C. Light ridge wind.

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Trace of new. Low -29 C, High -21 C. Wind SW: 20 km/h. Alpine temperature inversion.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps are penetrating deep into the upper snowpack, promoting widespread faceting. Pockets of wind slab are present on all aspects, tree line and above. The mid-pack is supportive with the Dec 1 interface down ~40 cm in most locations. Basal faceting continues below the Nov 5 crust potentially amplifying the deep persistent slab problem.

Avalanche Summary

Minimal natural activity observed on patrol. A large avalanche was seen mid-week in steep, shallow and rocky terrain. View min report here.

There has been inconsistence natural activity on the Nov 5 basal layer. When triggered, the slides are large and destructive. It's not yet open season, remain cautious and analytical when choosing your line.

Confidence

Regions covered