Avalanche Forecast

New Year, New Snow!

Friday Overnight: Cloudy with flurries beginning in the late evening, 10-20 cm of accumulation by the morning. Winds shifting to the southwest and strengthening to strong to extreme. Alpine temperatures rising to -15 C.

Saturday: A stormy day. Moderate to heavy precipitation throughout the day, 20-40cm of new snow accumulation accompanied by strong to extreme winds from the southwest, upwards of 100km/h. Alpine temperatures rising throughout the day to -5 C. Continued snowfall overnight, 5-15 cm of accumulation, winds easing to moderate to strong from the southwest.

Sunday: Continued snowfall with another 5-20 cm of accumulation. Strong southwest winds will shift southeast in the afternoon. Alpine temperatures around -5 C. Overnight, strong southeast winds will continue, with strong outflow winds setting up in coastal inlets. 

Monday: Partially cloudy with lingering flurries, moderate to strong southeast winds at all elevations. Alpine temperatures dropping to -20 at Arctic Air repopulates the region. 

Natural and human triggered avalanches will likely occur throughout the day. If you see any avalanche activity, please let us know by filling out a Mountain Information Network report.

A significant storm will impact the region today, bringing 40-60cm of new snow accumulation accompanied by strong to extreme southwest winds. In open areas, winds will create deep deposits of wind slab in lee features. In sheltered areas the new snow will form a touchy storm slab or loose dry avalanche problem. 

The new snow is likely to bond poorly to the old surface. Which is comprised of hard wind slab, sastrugi, and near surface faceting formed from previous variable winds and two weeks of prolonged cold temperatures. 

Two layers of surface hoar exist within the upper snowpack in protected areas at treeline and below; one is down 40-60 cm (Dec 21) and the other is down 60-100 cm (Dec 18). The distribution of these layers appears to be relatively isolated, but information is limited and there has been very little feedback with recent benign weather pattens.

The early December rain crust is up to 10cm thick, down 80-150cm in the snowpack, and exists to an average of 1400m in elevation. Up to 2mm facets have been reported above this crust, and it is producing hard but sudden planar results in snowpack tests in areas north of Terrace. 

The lower snowpack is well settled, with several decomposing early season crusts. Snowpack depths vary greatly across the region, expect to find anywhere from 140-300 cm of snow around treeline, with highest amounts in coastal areas.

• Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
• Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
• Choose simple, low-angle, well supported terrain without convexities.
• Sheltered low elevation terrain will likely offer the best and safest riding today.