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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2012–Jan 7th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Columbia.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Flurries during the day on Friday should accumulate a couple of new cm by Saturday morning. A weak ridge of high pressure building over the coast is forecast to develop strong winds from the west or northwest and warm temperatures in the Cariboo. Moderate precipitation is expected to begin by midnight and continue during the day on Sunday. The freezing level is expected to rise to about 1800 metres in the Cariboo and West Monashee by Sunday morning. It looks like most of the snow will fall in the North and West of the Interior ranges. Expect moderate to strong northwest winds on Sunday becoming strong from the west in the South Columbia and Purcells. Cooler air is expected to move in to the region from the northwest on Monday. Precipitation amounts are un-certain at this time. Chinook conditions are expected for the Rockies.

Avalanche Summary

Explosives control along the highway corridor in the Selkirks has been producing very large avalanches up to size 4.0. Some smaller natural avalanches releasing in the recent wind transported snow have been reported up to size 2.0. Reports have been limited due to poor visibility and travel conditions.

Snowpack Summary

The recent snow has been quite variable in it's distribution, depositing between 30-50 cm depending on the drainage. Generally it has been drier in the south of the region. Some areas have enough new snow for a "storm" slab to be reactive. The wind has been strong across the region, transporting snow onto north and east aspects. Windslabs have been touchy and releasing with wide propagations, sometimes stepping down to the mid-december surface hoar layer. Some areas have developed a rain crust after the recent warm temperatures that exists up to about 1600 metres.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Windslabs that developed during the recent strong winds and warm weather have consolidated into a stiff layer that has been propagating into wide releases in the alpine and treeline.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A cohesive slab sits over a touchy surface hoar weakness buried in mid-December. This layer is still touchy and susceptible to rider triggers. Avalanches on this layer will be large, destructive and may fracture across surprisingly far distances.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 7