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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2016–Jan 19th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Columbia.

A touchy persistent slab problem demands respect. Use extra caution in your terrain selection.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Fairly benign weather is expected for the next couple of days ahead of the next storm due late Thursday. Overnight Monday: 5-10 cm snow; Tuesday/ Wednesday: flurries; Thursday: 10-20 cm. The freezing level drops from 1100 m to valley floor late on Tuesday. Moderate southerly winds become light by late Tuesday. For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity has been widespread over the last few days as recent snow has reached a critical load above a volatile weak layer. Human and naturally-triggered avalanches in the size 1-2.5 range have been most prevalent below treeline, but have also occurred at treeline and alpine elevations. Wind slabs have also been reported in wind-exposed terrain. A ski tourer was buried last week, and professionals continue to operate with great caution. Continued human triggering of persistent slab avalanches is likely.

Snowpack Summary

A 40-80 cm persistent slab overlies a variety of surfaces including large surface hoar, sun crusts, and facets. This slab is ripe for human triggers and is especially touchy below treeline. Recently formed wind slabs also exist on lee features at alpine and treeline elevations. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The slab sitting over a volatile weak layer is primed for human triggering. It has been most reactive at and below treeline.
Extra caution required below treeline.>Avoid steep open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Use conservative route selection.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Wind Slabs

Recently formed wind slabs may be lurking behind ridges and ribs.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3