Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

In the south end of the region, light precipitation is expected Sunday overnight with freezing levels around 1500m. A ridge of high pressure should keep the region dry for the next two days. A mix of sun and cloud is expected for Monday with light alpine winds. Freezing levels should reach around 1800m in the afternoon. Overnight the freezing levels should fall close to valley bottom. On Tuesday, a mix of sun and cloud is expected with light alpine winds and freezing levels reaching around 2000m. Light flurries or showers are possible for Wednesday.

Observations were limited on Saturday due to the storm conditions but explosive and skier-triggered avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported from all aspects and above 1900m.  On Monday, touchy storm slabs are expected in the alpine and possibly at treeline.  There is some uncertainty regarding the distribution of these storm slabs but they could be widespread.  Thicker winds slabs associated with the storm are expected in leeward features and are the biggest concern for Monday.

At higher elevations, new snow sits over a variety of surfaces including moist snow, crusts, wind affected surfaces, and/or old wind slabs which may still be reactive. Rain has soaked the upper snowpack to around treeline elevation. In the alpine, strong winds during the storm are redistributing the new snow into wind slabs in leeward terrain features. Prior to the storm, 10-30cm of snow was sitting over a weak facet/crust layer that was buried in mid-February. This layer has been quite reactive recently and may increase the likelihood of triggering a storm slab. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer (around 1m deep) and the mid-January surface hoar (around 1.5m deep) have been dormant for several weeks . A basal weakness has recently become active with the warm conditions and several avalanches released to the ground last week.