Weather models are not agreeing to the timing whether Wednesday's or Thursday will have rising freezing levels and significant rain in valley bottom. Expect danger to increase if with possibly 20mm of precipitation.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday will be steady 20-40km/hr SW winds, clouds, flurries, and freezing level 2100m. Winds will slightly increase speed on Wednesday plus there may be very warm temperatures, significant snow at high elevations, and rain low down Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The models are not agreeing so allot of uncertainty on outcomes.
Snowpack Summary
Steady moderate Southwest winds transporting and pressing recent 20-40cm of snow into a slab in open areas at TL and above. Generally its bonding to the old snow interface in most areas. The mid-pack consists of persistent slab layers intermixed with weak facets. The base is weak facets, depth hoar, and an ice crust from November.
Avalanche Summary
Monday's patrol observed several wet loose size 1's running in the storm snow at treeline in the Big Bend area. They were likely triggered by solar radiation. March 11 skiers reported remotely triggering from 300m away into the alpine two size 2.5's 1.5m thick and 35m wide. They ran to bottom of the path.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.