Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Feb 9 – 10, 2017Parks Canada
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Up to 30cm of snow on Thursday with warming temperatures and strong Southwest winds. Expect natural avalanche activity to increase in size and frequency throughout the day and to continue into the weekend.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Strong SW winds building windslab with recent storm snow and expected to bond poorly.
  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–4
    The Jan 17 interface or deeper layers might be woken up with the forecasted heavy snowfall and would result in large avalanches.
  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Forecasted storm snow (~30cm) will fall over a poorly bonded, weak snow pack. Small sluffs have potential to entrain a lot of mass and grow in size quickly.

Weather Forecast

Snow arrives Thursday morning and forecasted to be 25-30cm by Thursday night! Temps will rise with the incoming snow with an Alpine high of -5 with the winds also increasing, Strong from the SW. Snow tappers off by Friday morning with temps dropping back to - 12 with moderate SW winds.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong SW winds are building windslab at treeline and above. A buried surface hoar and facet interface is down 10-15 cm which will be one of the layers of concern with the incoming storm. The mid-pack is facetted and weak, with depth hoar at its base.

Avalanche Summary

A highway patrol revealed a 48-72hr old natural avalanche cycle up to Sz 3. Most occurring below ridgeline, cross loaded gullies or within steep rocky terrain on NE to W aspects in the Alpine.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Regions covered