Precipitation arriving Monday night will arrive as snow at uppermost elevations and a mix of wet snow and rain below.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
MONDAY Night: Snow or rain, accumulation 15-25 cm of snow at uppermost elevations / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine temperature -2 C / freezing level 1500 m dropping to 1000 mTUESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated wet flurries / moderate south wind / alpine temperature -1 C / freezing level 1400 m WEDNESDAY: Sunny / light east wind / alpine temperature 7 C / freezing level 1900 mTHURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / light east wind / alpine temperature 6 C / freezing level 1800 m
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported recently.
Snowpack Summary
Expect to see 15-25 cm of new snow at upper elevations sitting on either moist snow or a melt freeze crust. Below 1300 m approximately, precipitation forecast for Monday night may fall as a mix of snow and rain or just rain. Melt-freeze conditions (more melt than freeze at lower elevations) exist on all other aspects and elevations.Deeper in the snowpack a layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. There have been no recent reports of avalanches nor activity on this layer in snowpack tests. The recent warm temperatures have probably helped this layer to heal significantly, the one place where it may still be a concern is high elevation north facing terrain.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.