Avalanche Forecast

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

The current weather pattern is rather complex, and the weather models are not in agreement. As of Thursday afternoon the models all look to be on the dry side, but this could change rapidly, stay tuned for more details. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, around -10 C in the alpine, light southeast wind, no significant snowfall expected.THURSDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to 900 m, light to moderate east/southeast wind, precipitation beginning in the afternoon, 3 to 5 cm expected late in the day. FRIDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1000 m, light variable wind, trace of snow possible.SATURDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, trace of snow possible.

Conditions sounded pretty good Wednesday with minor sluffing in most terrain. A size 1.5 slab avalanche was observed on a steep southwest facing line in the Whistler/Blackcomb backcountry in this MIN report.On Tuesday loose dry sluffing was reported from steep terrain at all elevations. Shallow soft wind slabs to size 1 were reported from steep lee terrain features. On Tuesday night an avalanche cycle produced widespread loose dry avalanches to size 1.Over the weekend, small pockets of wind slab were reactive to skier traffic in steep and immediate lee features. Of note is a MIN from the Whistler backcountry reporting wind slabs at lower elevations and in more sheltered terrain than usual (see the MIN here).

10 to 30 cm of low density storm snow has fallen over the last few days with wind generally out of the south. Previous to this most recent storm, the region was hit hard by an extreme wind event featuring winds out of the north and northeast which wreaked havoc on alpine and treeline features. So, the fresh snow rests on heavily wind affected snow and stiff old wind slabs. Due to the scouring and wind-loading, anywhere from 0-100 cm of snow sits on a crust on all aspects below 2000m and solar aspects into the alpine. Above 1800 m, recent cold temperatures have been working to facet and break down the buried crust. In sheltered terrain at and below treeline a layer of weak feathery surface hoar or sugary facets may be identified, but this interface has produced little recent avalanche activity. The remainder of the snowpack is generally well-settled.