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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2013–Jan 1st, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation expected. Freezing levels in valley bottoms and  moderate NW ridge top winds. Thursday: Increasing cloud with isolated light snow flurries. Strong westerly winds and freezing levels as high as 1700m. Friday: Snow with 10-15cm of total accumulation expected, particularly east of the divide. Freezing levels in valley bottoms and moderate NW winds.

Avalanche Summary

No significant avalanche observations have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Alpine areas are highly wind-affected with scoured areas, sastrugi, and deep deposits. At treeline, the snowpack is generally well settled, but definitely more stable in the Crowsnest and Elk Valley North than in the Flathead and Elk Valley South where the late-November persistent weakness of surface hoar, crust, and/or facets down 30-70cm has reached the tipping point for rider triggering in a few areas. Check out this video of a recent snowpack test on this layer.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.