Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Feb 3 – 4, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A big change in the weather is in store beginning Thursday. Check out the vlog our field team put together a few days back: http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Moderate to strong SW winds will likely find whatever soft snow there is and reform it into thin wind slabs in wind exposed terrain. Should be easily managed by staying out of the wind.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–4
    The likelihood of triggering this layer is higher on shallow rocky features above treeline.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The weather pattern is currently super dynamic and tough to pin down with exact metrics, especially on Friday. No precipitation is expected on Wednesday, but winds should begin to ramp up to moderate SW at treeline, Strong W in the alpine. Thursday looks very similar with the potential for a trace amount of snow. Friday should bring 2-15mm of precipitation which will likely start as snow, switching to rain as the freezing level begins to climb towards 2500m. Check back for more updates tomorrow.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Recent sunny weather and high freezing levels have decimated the lower elevation snowpack. As a result the threshold for avalanches in most of the region has risen to approximately 1600m, potentially higher on solar aspects. 4-10cm of new snow has covered up a melt freeze crust and/or surface hoar, or a combo of both. The melt freeze crust exists up to approximately 1900m and up to all elevations on solar aspects. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar layer is down 40-85cm and is suspected to be reactive in isolated areas, especially where a slab of stiffer snow has consolidated above it.

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