Human-triggered avalanches are likely with several buried surface hoar layers. It's time for conservative decision making.
Weather Forecast
Today is a day of transition in the weather pattern. The flow is becoming more Southerly and bringing warmer temps & moisture eventually. Freezing level will climb to 1200m this afternoon. We can expect cloudy skies with some sunny periods and light flurries with no significant precipitation are expected. Wind at mountain top will be SW 20-30.
Snowpack Summary
10cm fell overnight adding to 70cm of snowfall in the past week. This storm snow has settled into a slab over several weak layers. Jan 4th surface hoar is down 50cm and the Dec 15 surface hoar persistent weak layer is down around 100cm. The recent snow load has made these layers reactive with sudden planar results showing high propagation potential
Avalanche Summary
A size 3 natural avalanche occurred Thursday morning on the SE face of 8812 peak. A field team observed evidence of a slightly older widespread natural avalanche cycle while traveling in Connaught Creek drainage. A second field team felt a large whumph while descending through an open glade in the Hermit area.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.