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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 27th, 2018–Dec 28th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

The start of the weekend's storm begins on Friday with light snowfall. All this recent storm snow may need more time to bond to the snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, freezing level 600 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 10 cm, light to moderate west winds, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 600 m.SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 30 to 40 cm, strong southwest winds, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level 1500 m.SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, light north winds, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 700 m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent storm snow was reported to be reactive on Wednesday and Thursday. This MIN report indicates that storm slab properties and small avalanches were observed throughout their tour near Mt. Seymour. Similar observations were reported in other regions of the North Shore on Thursday.Expect avalanche activity to increase over the weekend, as an incoming storm will drop substantial snowfall with strong winds and increasing freezing levels.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 cm of recent snow may not be bonding well to underlying surfaces. This is particularly the case in the north of the region, where the snow may have fallen on a weak layer of feathery surface hoar.Deeper, about 60 cm of recent snow sits on a thick melt-freeze crust. Reports indicate that the snow is bonding well to the crust in certain areas but may be slower to bond in other areas.The middle and lower snowpack are well-settled. Snow depths increase substantially with higher elevations. Expect to find about 200 cm at treeline elevations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.