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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 9th, 2012–Dec 10th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Monday: A weak ridge of High pressure is forecast to bring moderate gusty NW winds overnight that should decrease during the day as the flow shifts more Westerly. The Westerly winds are expected to increase to moderate Monday evening. Very light precipitation overnight and none forecast for Monday.Tuesday: A cold front is expected to move down the coast from the North sometime Monday night, bringing 2-4 mm of precipitation that should fall as snow at all elevations. Expect SE 20-40 km/hr and the gusting to NW 60 km/hr later in the day.Wednesday:There is another system forecast to move onto the coast in the afternoon. Timing, precipitation amounts, and wind values are uncertain at this time.

Avalanche Summary

Evidence of previous avalanches up to size 3.0 from Mt Joffre at 2000 metres. Ski cutting produced heavy sluffing.

Snowpack Summary

There isĀ  about 140 cms below treeline in the Duffey Lake area, with 30 cms ski penetration and waist deep foot penetration at treeline. At 1900 metres on a NE aspect there was 60 cms of very light (Fist) density snow above slightly stiffer (4 Finger) snow. Snow stability tests showed only mid storm collapses. The Coquihalla also has a well settled "right side up" snowpack that is about 190 cms deep at 1550 metres elevation. "Right side up" means that the surface layers are light and soft, and then the layers get progressively more dense as you move down through the snowpack. The ski penetration has been reported to be about 40 cms and the foot penetration is very deep at 80 cms. The light snow is causing a lot of sluffing in steeper terrain, but is not reacting as a slab. The November crust has not been found in the Coquihalla, although we don't have any reports from the high alpine. Conditions may be quite different in the North of this region, please email us your observations if you are out in the field. [email protected]

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.