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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2015–Jan 18th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Continued stormy conditions will create changing avalanche problems. Keep your wits about you and be prepared to adjust your plans as you travel.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Expect 5-15 cm snow on Sunday with moderate to strong SW winds and the freezing level near 900 m. Light to moderate snow continues on Monday, with strong SW winds. A second organised system is forecast to affect the area on Tuesday, bringing heavy snow, strong SW winds and rising temperatures.

Avalanche Summary

Explosives triggered numerous size 1-2 slabs yesterday in the north of the region. Most of these were on wind-loaded N-NE aspects around 1400-1500 m. At low elevations, natural loose wet avalanches were observed in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds have redistributed recent storm snow into wind slabs, and rain has saturated the surface of the snowpack to at least treeline elevations. As temperatures cool, the below treeline snowpack may gain some strength. Above treeline, a buried rain crust and/or surface hoar layer is down about 30-50 cm. A deeper crust/facet layer (buried mid-December) seems to have dropped off most operators' radar for the time being. The November crust near the bottom of the snowpack is generally well bonded, but may still be reactive in areas with a shallow snowpack, or with a very heavy load.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.