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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2017–Feb 17th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Cooling temperatures will eventually help stabilize the snowpack, but I'd give the storm snow a bit more time to settle before pushing into bigger terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Light flurries along the coast, light west winds, freezing level dropping to 500 m with alpine temperatures around -6 C.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southeast wind, alpine temperatures around -8 C.SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southeast wind, alpine temperatures around -8 C.

Avalanche Summary

Due to stormy weather, avalanche observations over the past few days have been limited. New snow and wind have created potent yet relatively short-term surface instabilities, with a few reports of size 1 skier-triggered avalanches on small wind loaded slopes. At lower elevations where precipitation fell as rain, widespread loose wet avalanches to size 2 were also reported. As the storm clears, there will be a fair bit of uncertainty regarding how the storm loading and warm temperatures have affected the reactivity of deeper weaknesses. I'd remain conservative in my terrain selection for the immediate future.

Snowpack Summary

The region received another 10-20 cm of new snow on Thursday, adding to the healthy amounts of storm snow from last weekend. Strong winds likely shifted these accumulations into much deeper deposits at higher elevations. Below about 1000 m, rain has saturated and settled the snowpack. Beneath 70-100 cm of recent storm snow, you'll find a variety of old surfaces that were buried on February 10th. These include facets, sun crusts on steep solar aspects, and well-developed surface hoar in sheltered locations. This interface has been reported to be most reactive at treeline where the surface hoar has been well-preserved. Below this layer, the snowpack is generally strong and well settled. The exceptions are areas around Bear Pass and Ningunsaw where basal facets remain an ongoing concern, especially in shallow snowpack areas.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.