Check out our blog post that addresses the current forecast challenges and changing conditions this weekend: http://www.avalanche.ca/cac/bulletins/forecaster-blog
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A storm moving tracking along the international border will deliver snow through the night Friday, extending into Saturday. 10 - 20 cm of snow is expected and will likely be accompanied by moderate/strong SW winds. Storm activity should taper off Saturday evening. Freezing levels are expected stay near 1000m Saturday. A weak trough passes over the region Sunday bringing broken cloud cover and the occasional flurry of snow.
Avalanche Summary
A few thin windslabs were triggered Thursday by skiers, but the bulk of the avalanche activity yesterday was limited to sluffing of the new snow.
Snowpack Summary
Five centimeters fell overnight Thursday, burying the February 16th Surface Hoar. 20 cm of light density snow lies between the February 16th surface hoar and the February 8th weakness. Within that 20cm some places have at least one other layer of surface hoar that formed between snowfalls. Feb. 8th is used to describe a combination of weak layers: In most locations it marks a widespread surface hoar layer. On steep south & west facing aspects a crust that formed during the drought was also buried on Feb. 8th. This crust likely has a bit of faceting below it too, meaning that most terrain in the region has a weak layer 20 - 25 cm under the snow surface. Down below this problematic interface a well settled mid pack is in place. The exception is the eastern and southern parts of the region where deeper weaknesses and basal facets may still be a factor. In these areas, a low-probability/high-consequence condition exists. It should be noted that large cornices remain widespread throughout the region.
ghelgeson,
Avalanche Canada
