Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 1st, 2013 10:15AM

The alpine rating is low, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Cornices and Loose Wet.

mbender, Avalanche Canada

South Columbia.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday/Wednesday:Â The ridge of high pressure should begin to break down. Light/thin clouds are possible with temperatures slowly falling to more seasonal values. Expect light to moderate westerly winds. There is a slight chance of isolated flurries developing late on Wednesday.Thursday: A high pressure system builds promoting clear and dry conditions with light westerly winds and 1800m freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

Solar aspects have been very active showing lots of natural loose wet avalanches and cornice releases up to size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Surface faceting and surface hoar growth ( up to 20 mm) has been prevalent on shady slopes at upper elevations, while the surface snow on sun-exposed slopes and at lower elevations has been subject to daily melt-freeze cycles. Cornices are large and weak.Surface hoar buried March 10th is down 100cm in most places. This layer seems to be bonding in most places and is a low probability - high consequence problem. Triggering may be possible with a very large load (cornice fall) or hitting the sweet spot in thin, variable snowpack areas.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice falls are a concern during warming. Slopes with corniced entrances, or exposed to cornice falls should be avoided. It is possible that the weight of a cornice dropping onto the slope below could trigger an avalanche on the Mid-March crust.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 6

Loose Wet

Keep an eye on changing conditions: Avalanche activity, snowballing, moist and wet snow are initial indicators of deterioration and increased hazard.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Apr 2nd, 2013 2:00PM