Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2016 9:13AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada jsmith, Avalanche Canada

Extra caution required below treeline where a buried weak layer is easily triggered. Check out the new forecaster blog at avalanche.ca/blogs or click here.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The next storm has arrived and should produce 5-15 cm of snow by Sunday morning. An additional 5-10 cm is expected during the day and overnight on Sunday. There is a break in the action on Monday with flurries likely not amounting to more than a few cm. Current model runs show the interior back into a storm cycle on Tuesday with another 5-10 cm throughout the day. Snowfall amounts in the Monashees could be higher than forecast. Freezing levels should hover around 1100m and ridgetop winds are expected to remain light to moderate out of the south for the forecast period. For additional weather information see avalanche.ca/weather

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and human triggered avalanches size 1-2 were reported throughout the region on Friday. These avalanches occurred primarily below 1800 m, on all aspects. Of note, was a size 2.5 avalanche that was remotely triggered from 50 m away on Saturday. This speaks to the touchy nature of the buried weak layer. This trend is expected to continue throughout the weekend as the snow load increases.

Snowpack Summary

A 40-60 cm storm slab overlays a variety of surfaces including large surface hoar, sun crusts, and facets. In recent days, the snow above this layer has settled into a cohesive slab and is ripe for human triggers, especially below 1800 m. Expect this slab to be thicker on lee features in the alpine. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
Recent storm snow has settled into a reactive slab on all aspects and elevations. Watch for buried surface hoar that is easy to trigger on steep rolls in open terrain. This layer has been especially reactive below 1800 m.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid steep open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequence.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2016 2:00PM