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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2013–Dec 15th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Sunday: Moderate precipitation and moderate SW winds will continue through the day before tapering off Sunday night. Total storm accumulations will range between 5 and 15 cm. Freezing levels are forecast to remain around 1700m.Monday: Expect a pretty benign weather day ahead of the next low pressure system with overcast skies, and light southwest winds.Tuesday: The next front of the system will push warm air over the colder air inland. A slight temperature inversion will develop with the possibility for above freezing temperatures as high as 2000m. Light precipitation and strong SW winds will are associated with the arrival of the front.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche have been reported

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths vary greatly across the region with 160cm reported at treeline in the Northern Cascades but only 50 cm along the Duffy. In general the snowpack across the regions is significantly thinner than average for this time of year. Terrain below treeline is still mostly below threshold for avalanche activity.Between 15 and 20 cm of new snow is settling into a soft slab Southerly winds have formed pockets of windslab in alpine lee features. Surface hoar from early in December can be found buried is sheltered locations above 1900m. On slopes that were scoured by early December's strong N winds the late November crust may have been exposed on the surface before the recent snowfall however in most locations it underlies up to 40 cm of week sugary snow.A few crusts can be found near the ground at higher elevations especially in rocky alpine areas with a thin snowpack.Early season riding hazards such as rocks, stumps and logs are lurking below the surface at treeline elevations. In glaciated terrain the forecast snow might just be enough to hide open crevasses.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.