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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 21st, 2016–Feb 22nd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Watch for moderate winds to form fresh pockets of wind slab through the day.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Flurries overnight with about 5cm expected before becoming cloudy with sunny breaks through the day, light to moderate westerly winds, freezing level 1000m. TUESDAY: mainly sunny, light to moderate southerly winds, freezing level 1200m. WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, light southerly winds, freezing level 1500m

Avalanche Summary

A couple of new natural and skier triggered storm and wind slab avalanches were reported on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow continues to settle and gain strength. A thin crust may cap moist snow lower at elevations and on slopes that see direct sun.  Recent winds have formed wind pressed surfaces in exposed terrain and loaded lee features.  40-95cm of snow now sits above a melt freeze crust buried on February 12th.  This crust extends up to about 2000. In some places a thin layer of facets below this crust is failing under moderate loads in snow pit tests. A layer of surface hoar buried late in January can be found about a meter down and remains a concern for commercial operations. This layer seems the most reactive in the north of the region but may still be a concern in the south as well. Shallow snowpack areas in the east and north of the region may also have a weak base of facetted snow on or just above the ground.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.